GUEST POSTS AND OP-EDs

  For more than two years, analysts have fixated on the tactical map of eastern and southern Ukraine: a few kilometers gained here, a few lost there. This narrow lens has produced a misleading narrative that Ukraine is “not winning.” The truth is more complex — and far more consequential.

Ukraine is not winning tactically on the battlefield, but Russia isn’t either. 

And strategically, Ukraine is now decisively ahead. The war’s center of gravity has shifted. It is no longer defined by trench lines around Avdiivka or the slow grind near Robotyne. It is defined by the collapse of Russia’s economic stability, the erosion of its industrial base, and the growing political unrest inside the Russian Federation. Ukraine’s long‑range UAV campaign, combined with Western economic pressure and Russia’s own internal contradictions, has created a strategic environment in which Moscow is bleeding resources faster than it can replace them.This is what winning looks like in a long war.

1. The Battlefield Stalemate Masks a Strategic Breakthrough

Neither side is achieving decisive tactical breakthroughs. Russia’s winter offensive stalled with heavy losses; Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive did not produce rapid territorial gains. But Ukraine has adapted faster and more creatively.Ukrainian UAVs — many built for a fraction of the cost of Russian air defenses — are striking deep inside Russia with increasing precision. In the past six months alone, Ukrainian drones have hit:

• Oil refineries in Ryazan, Novokuibyshevsk, and Nizhny Novgorod, temporarily removing up to 15% of Russia’s refining capacity from the grid.
• Fuel depots in Krasnodar and Belgorod, forcing Russia to reroute military logistics.
• Defense‑industrial plants in Tatarstan, including facilities producing Shahed‑type drones and electronic components.

These strikes matter. Russia’s war machine runs on diesel, aviation fuel, and precision electronics — all of which are now in short supply.

2. Russia Is Facing Fuel Shortages and Industrial Breakdown

The consequences of Ukraine’s deep‑strike campaign are visible across Russia:

• Fuel shortages have been reported in at least 20 regions, including Omsk, Altai, and parts of the Volga district.
• Gas stations in rural areas have imposed rationing, limiting purchases to 10–20 liters per customer.
• Russia has been forced to import gasoline from Belarus — a stunning reversal for a country that once prided itself on being an energy superpower.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s strikes on defense‑industrial facilities have disrupted:

• Explosives manufacturing, slowing artillery shell production.
• Electronics and drone assembly, forcing Russia to rely even more heavily on smuggled Western components.
• Repair depots, reducing Russia’s ability to refurbish tanks and armored vehicles.

Russia is not running out of weapons — yet. But it is running out of the capacity to sustain a long war at the current tempo.

3. Internal Unrest in Russia Is No Longer Hidden

For the first time since the early 2000s, unrest inside Russia is becoming visible and increasingly bold.

• In Dagestan, crowds openly confronted local authorities over mobilization.
• In Bashkortostan, thousands protested the imprisonment of a local activist, chanting slogans that would have been unthinkable two years ago.
• In Moscow and St. Petersburg, small but persistent anti‑war demonstrations continue despite mass arrests.

Either the FSB cannot contain this unrest — or, as some analysts quietly suggest, elements within the security services may be allowing it to grow to weaken Putin’s position.The Kremlin’s once‑tight control over society is showing cracks.

4. Russia’s Economy Is in a Precarious Position

Russia’s macroeconomic indicators tell a story of a state under severe strain:

• Inflation has surged, with food prices rising 20–30% in some regions.
• Banks are facing liquidity shortages, prompting the Central Bank to inject emergency funds.
• Corporate defaults have increased sharply, especially among construction and manufacturing firms.
• The ruble has repeatedly required state intervention to prevent collapse.

Russia’s budget deficit is widening, driven by:

• Record military spending
• Declining energy revenues
• Sanctions that limit access to Western financing and technology

This is not a stable wartime economy. It is an economy burning through its reserves to survive month to month.

5. Russia’s Agricultural Sector Is Faltering

Agriculture — one of Russia’s few remaining competitive industries — is now under pressure:

• Diesel shortages have delayed planting and harvesting in multiple regions.
• Labor shortages caused by mobilization have left farms without seasonal workers.
• Some grain producers report yield reductions of 10–15%, with worse expected if fuel scarcity continues.

A country that once boasted record grain exports is now struggling to maintain domestic production.

6. Global Public Opinion Is Shifting Toward Ukraine

The world is watching, and the narrative is changing.

• European publics, once fatigued, are again expressing strong support for Ukraine after seeing Russia’s strikes on civilian infrastructure.
• Asian and Latin American nations are increasingly critical of Russia’s economic coercion and alignment with Iran.
• Even traditionally neutral states like Switzerland and Austria have hardened their stance on sanctions enforcement.

In the United States, President Trump has begun signaling stronger support for Ukraine, aligning himself with the side that is demonstrating strategic momentum. This shift matters: American leadership shapes global perceptions of the conflict.Russian propaganda, once aggressive and confident, now appears demoralized — recycling old narratives, contradicting itself, and failing to counter Ukraine’s growing success in the information domain.

7. Ukraine Is Winning the War That Determines the Outcome

Wars are not won only by capturing territory. They are won by:

• Breaking the enemy’s industrial base
• Undermining the enemy’s political stability
• Securing international support
• Maintaining economic resilience
• Preserving national morale

On every one of these metrics, Ukraine is advancing while Russia is deteriorating.Ukraine’s strategy — asymmetric strikes, economic pressure, coalition diplomacy, and technological innovation — is slowly but steadily eroding Russia’s ability to wage war. The battlefield may look static, but the strategic map is shifting decisively in Ukraine’s favor.The question is no longer whether Ukraine can survive. It is whether Russia can.

           Kestutis J. Eidukonis           LTC USAR (ret)